In the last few days, we heard a powerful surge of warnings from the highest levels of our national security establishment.

It began with the Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh, who, while performing the traditional Shastra Puja near the Gujarat border on October 2, 2025, issued a direct and unambiguous threat over Pakistan’s build-up in the Sir Creek region near Kutch. He asserted that any misadventure would change “both history and geography,” declaring: “The road to Karachi passes through the Creek.”

The following day, October 3, 2025, the Army Chief, General Upendra Dwivedi, speaking to troops at Anupgarh in Rajasthan, amplified the threat. He warned that the restraint shown in Operation Sindoor 1.0 would not be repeated, demanding that Pakistan cease state-sponsored terrorism if it hopes to retain its very place in “the Geography” (the world map).

On October 3, 2025, during a press interaction in Delhi, the Air Force Chief, Air Chief Marshal A. P. Singh, confirmed the success of Operation Sindoor. He detailed the significant losses inflicted on the Pakistan Air Force, including F-16s and JF-17s, dismissing Pakistan’s denials as “fanciful stories.”

These “Spears”—these declarations of capability and resolve—come just after the diplomatic ink dried on the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This is a pact that binds the security of the two nations, yet it is currently being touted in some circles as mere tokenism, in India.

The question before us now is urgent, simple, and crucial: Are these loud proclamations from our command structure just Snarls meant for domestic consumption and reassurance? Or are they true Spears—meant to convey an unyielding message across the border along with their allies? And, most crucially, is Pakistan testing our resolve, or are we testing theirs?

The Unsettling Questions

We must be honest enough to admit and evaluate the situation by asking: Did the strategic calculation go wrong? The feeling of being cornered is undeniably strong in analytical circles, but are we being cornered, or is that just an overblown perception?

The Price of Victory?

The very success of Operation Sindoor forces us to ask:

  • Has that tactical victory actually precipitated our current strategic predicament by forcing our adversaries to consolidate their alliances?

  • Should we worry that the world did not support us as we expected in the aftermath of the operation?

Is there a real diplomatic fallout, or is this all just an imagination running wild?

The Tightening Knot of Alliances

If we look at the geopolitical map, the questions surrounding our isolation are stark:
– Did we lose anything to China at the LAC that we haven’t even admitted yet? And if so, how does that impact our current posture?
– Why is Bangladesh out of our sphere? And does this signal a broader failure in our immediate neighbourhood strategy?
– Wasn’t Turkiye’s open support to Pak like coming against India in battle? And didn’t we just end up validating the China-Pakistan-Türkiye axis?

The sight of Pakis enjoying breakfast in Washington begs the question: Has the USA switched sides, confirming that the relationship is strictly transactional, where we are merely a counterweight, nothing more?

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Unpacking the Saudi Gambit

The new pact with Saudi Arabia cannot be viewed without India being the major reason. But which reason is the real one?
– Is Pakistan actively compacting its strategic depth—building a formidable bloc with China, Turkey, and now Saudi—as a defensive measure against us?
– Did Pakistan not get what it expected from China during Ops Sindoor, forcing it to rush to Riyadh for a security assurance? Or is it looking for more baskets for its eggs?
– Does Pakistan expect danger to its nukes from Israel or an Indo-Israeli nexus, making this pact an ambiguous attempt to draw a protective circle?
– Does Saudi Arabia expect military action from the Israeli side that requires Pakistan to act as a protector?

The pact as tokenism: Has any assurance been given to India by the Saudis, or is the significance being played down to calm nerves?

The Strategic Crossroads

We must ask these critical questions. If we are celebrating battlefield victories only to find ourselves strategically contained by a reinforced, hostile alliance, then how do we judge our overall strategy?

In this shifting, hostile landscape, the ultimate question remains: Are we lost?

Jatinder Pal Singh Retd CPMF Commandant

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